Emerging Markets Hit a Wall
【TYLER COWEN／ESSAY／陳世欽譯】
A growth slowdown in the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — could be impeding the expansion of the global economy. In Brazil, unrest has arisen over stagnant living standards. Yet a graver problem may be lurking behind the headlines: meteoric growth in emerging economies may no longer be possible. 
巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國大陸、南非等金磚國家成長減緩，連帶可能影響全球經濟的擴張。在巴西，生活水準停滯引發了示威抗議。然而另一個更嚴重的問題可能藏在幕後：新興經濟體的飛快成長可能已是明日黃花。
Evidence for this is coming from at least four directions. First, machines can perform more and more functions in manufacturing, and sometimes even in services. That makes it harder for emerging countries to compete via low wages.
相關證據至少來自四個方面。首先，機器在製造領域能做的事越來越多，有時候甚至在服務業亦然。這使得新興國家更難透過低廉薪資競爭。
Second, supply chains are now scattered across countries. Success in one part of the chain does not bring with it others to benefit the economy more widely. Thailand, for example, has courted automobile factories successfully, but the parts usually come from outside.
其次，供應鏈已經分散到各國。供應鏈特定環節的成功未必能帶來其他環節的成功，使整體經濟更廣泛受益。以泰國為例，雖成功吸引外國車廠進駐生產，零組件卻往往來自國外。
Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, sees the new world as one of “development enclaves,” in which parts of countries will become advanced without transforming the rest.
日內瓦高等研究所國際經濟學教授包德文認為，這個新世界是「開發的孤立小區」，也就是說各國的部分地區會進入已開發狀態，其他地區則毫無改變。
Another barrier is the difficulty of sustaining an effort to catch up economically. South Korea’s economic rise required sacrifices from millions of people in work hours, savings and investment in education. Many of today’s poorer nations seem to be more than 20 years away from competing with the global leaders, and that longer path may discourage some.
另外一種障礙是，難以延續特定努力，以致無法在經濟方面迎頭趕上。南韓經濟所以能夠崛起，先決條件是數以百萬計的南韓人願意在工時、儲蓄與教育投資方面多所付出。如今，許多較貧窮國家似乎落後先進國家20年以上。如此比較漫長的路途可能使部分國家氣餒。
Finally, many lower-income countries will be old before they are rich. China’s population, for example, is aging rapidly, given the government’s one-child policy and the decline in birthrates that accompanies rising income. It is less well known that fertility rates in much of the Middle East and North Africa are also falling rapidly. In Iran, for example, it is now estimated at 1.86 per woman, which over time would mean that families are not replenishing themselves. And shrinking and older populations, of course, limit future economic growth.
最後，許多收入較低的國家成為富裕國家之前，人口即已老化。以中國大陸為例，它的人口正在快速老化，原因包括政府實施一胎化政策，以及收入提高導致生育率降低。比較不為人知的另一個事實是，中東與北非許多地區生育率同樣正快速降低。以伊朗為例，每名婦女目前平均只生育1.86名子女。這意味，假以時日，伊朗的家庭將明顯萎縮，而人口萎縮與老化當然會限制未來的經濟發展。
The living standards of poorer nations need not stagnate. They can improve the lot of at least some citizens by selling services, as in India , with its Bangalore call centers. Many African nations are marketing their resource wealth, and may also improve productivity in local agriculture. Virtually all poor nations eventually benefit from the innovations of wealthy nations, which they often receive at much lower prices, as seen with cellphones and medications, for example. Chances for progress remain, but those nations might never “become like us.” There was something special about the 20th-century mix of well-paying manufacturing jobs, which led to a middle class that took significant control of government.
較貧窮國家的國民生活水準不見得會停滯。它們可以透過販售服務至少改善部分國民的生活，例如擁有邦加羅爾客服中心的印度。許多非洲國家正在推銷它們的天然資源，也可能提高地方農業的生產力。幾乎所有窮國最終都會因為富裕國家的創新而受益。窮國通常可以低了許多的價格享受這些好處，例如智慧手機與醫藥。進步的空間仍然存在，然而這些國家可能永遠無法「變得像我們一樣」。20世紀的高薪資製造業工作具有某種特點。它造就的中產階級最後掌控政府。
The idea of economic catch-up has changed, which means that politics in developing nations could change, too. Newly growing nations find themselves in a more stratified world, without developing their own strong egalitarian histories to undergird political institutions or economic expectations.
經濟迎頭趕上的概念已經改變。這意味，開發中國家的政治也可能改變。新興開發中國家發現，它們處於一個分層更細的世界，而且缺少個別的厚實平等主義歷史，無法支撐政治機構或經濟期待。
The path of developing countries could be much different from what it used to be. The next emerging-market winners may retain very large pockets of poverty. It is possible that, while Seoul now looks a fair amount like Los Angeles, perhaps La Paz, Accra and Dhaka will never look much like Seoul.
開發中國家遵循的路徑可能迥異於以往。下一波的新興市場贏家可能保留很大一部分的貧窮。首爾現在很像洛杉磯，玻利維亞首都拉巴斯、迦納首都阿克拉、孟加拉首都達卡卻可能永遠不會很像首爾。
【2013-07-09/聯合報】
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